{"id":15296,"date":"2026-01-21T17:42:26","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T17:42:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aipraktikum.com\/?p=15296"},"modified":"2026-01-22T08:58:58","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T08:58:58","slug":"ray-kurzweil-agi-singularnost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aipraktikum.com\/en\/ray-kurzweil-agi-singularnost\/","title":{"rendered":"Ray Kurzweil, budu\u0107nost ljudi i AGI"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Umjetna inteligencija na ljudskoj razini dolazi do 2029., dugovje\u010dnost se radikalno produ\u017euje oko 2032., a do 2045. ulazimo u singularnost \u2013 spajanje ljudi i umjetne inteligencije. Ne radi se o borbi \u010dovjeka i stroja, nego o fuziji koja vi\u0161estruko poja\u010dava ljudski potencijal.<\/p>\n

Jedan klik dublje: za\u0161to je ovo va\u017eno ba\u0161 sada<\/h2>\n

Ako ima\u0161 osje\u0107aj da se svijet mijenja br\u017ee nego ikad \u2013 u pravu si.<\/p>\n

Ray Kurzweil to ne govori ju\u010der. On to govori vi\u0161e od 30 godina.
Razlika je u tome \u0161to su danas njegova \u201eluda\u201c predvi\u0111anja postala \u2013 konzervativna.<\/p>\n

Ovo nije tekst o dalekoj znanstvenoj fantastici.
Ovo je mapa onoga \u0161to ulazi u na\u0161e \u017eivote u sljede\u0107ih 5\u201320 godina<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

I da \u2013 utjecat \u0107e na:<\/p>\n

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    posao<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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    zdravlje<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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    obrazovanje<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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    ekonomiju<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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    samu definiciju \u010dovjeka<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Tko je Ray Kurzweil i za\u0161to ga vrijedi slu\u0161ati<\/h2>\n

    Ray Kurzweil je futurist, izumitelj i jedan od najdosljednijih predvi\u0111a\u010da tehnolo\u0161kog razvoja.<\/p>\n

    \u010cinjenice:<\/p>\n

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      vi\u0161e od 60 godina rada<\/strong> u podru\u010dju AI-ja<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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      86 % to\u010dnosti predvi\u0111anja<\/strong> (Wikipedija, vi\u0161egodi\u0161nja analiza)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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      autor knjiga The Singularity Is Near (2005.)<\/em> and The Singularity Is Nearer (2024.)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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      tvorac Zakona ubrzavaju\u0107ih povrata<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Njegovi izumi uklju\u010duju:<\/p>\n

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        CCD plo\u0161ni skener<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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        omni-font OCR<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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        prvi stroj koji \u010dita tekst naglas<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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        Kurzweil sintesajzer<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Dobitnik je:<\/p>\n

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          Nacionalne medalje za tehnologiju i inovacije<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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          21 po\u010dasnog doktorata<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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          priznanja triju ameri\u010dkih predsjednika<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          Drugim rije\u010dima:
          Kad Kurzweil ka\u017ee \u201eovo dolazi\u201c \u2013 ne naga\u0111a. Mjeri trendove.<\/p>\n

          Tri klju\u010dna datuma koje treba zapamtiti<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
          Doga\u0111aj<\/th>\nGodina<\/th>\n\u0160to to zna\u010di<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
          AGI \u2013 umjetna op\u0107a inteligencija<\/td>\n2029.<\/td>\nAI postaje bolja od ljudi u tisu\u0107ama podru\u010dja i povezuje znanja<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Longevity Escape Velocity<\/td>\n2032.<\/td>\n\u017divot se produ\u017euje br\u017ee nego \u0161to starimo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Singularnost<\/td>\n2045.<\/td>\nSpajanje ljudi i AI-ja, vi\u0161estruko pove\u0107anje inteligencije<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

          Ovo nisu simboli\u010dne godine.
          Ovo su operativni rokovi<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

          AGI 2029.: za\u0161to to nije \u201ejo\u0161 jedan chatbot\u201c<\/h2>\n

          Kurzweilova definicija AGI-ja je stroga:<\/p>\n

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            mora biti stru\u010dnjak u tisu\u0107ama podru\u010dja<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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            mora znati kombinirati znanja<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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            mora nadma\u0161iti pojedina\u010dnog \u010dovjeka u \u0161irini i dubini<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            Dana\u0161nji modeli su mo\u0107ni, ali jo\u0161 uvijek odvojeni alati.
            AGI zna\u010di ne\u0161to drugo:<\/p>\n

            \"\u27a1\ufe0f\" inteligencija koja razmi\u0161lja horizontalno i vertikalno<\/strong> istovremeno.<\/p>\n

            To je temelj za sve ostalo.<\/p>\n

            Singularnost nije rat ljudi i strojeva<\/h2>\n

            Naj\u010de\u0161\u0107i strah:
            \u201eAI \u0107e zamijeniti ljude.\u201c<\/p>\n

            Kurzweil ka\u017ee suprotno.<\/p>\n

            Ne\u0107emo imati:<\/p>\n

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              ljude ovdje<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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              AI tamo<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              Imat \u0107emo jedinstveni sustav<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

              Ideje vi\u0161e ne\u0107e imati oznaku:<\/p>\n

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                biolo\u0161ko<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                digitalno<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                One \u0107e jednostavno \u2013 dolaziti.<\/p>\n

                Dana\u0161nji ChatGPT je vanjski alat.
                Singularnost zna\u010di da je inteligencija unutra<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

                Besmrtnost: za\u0161to starenje postaje problem tehnologije<\/h2>\n

                Do 2032. ulazimo u fazu gdje:<\/p>\n

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                  svaka godina napretka medicine produ\u017euje \u017eivot vi\u0161e od jedne godine<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                  Kako?<\/p>\n

                  Ne (samo) nanotehnologijom.
                  Nego:<\/p>\n

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                    AI simulacijama biologije<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                    milijunima virtualnih testova u danima<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                    Kurzweil procjenjuje:<\/p>\n

                    U roku 5 godina mo\u0107i \u0107emo simulirati:<\/p>\n

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                      milijune biolo\u0161kih scenarija<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                      u jednom vikendu<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                      Rezultat:<\/p>\n

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                        br\u017ei razvoj lijekova<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                        personalizirana medicina<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                        bolesti poput raka i sr\u010danih oboljenja postaju rje\u0161ivi problemi<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                        Digitalni avatari i pitanje svijesti<\/h2>\n

                        Postoji jedno neugodno pitanje:<\/p>\n

                        \"\u27a1\ufe0f\" Mo\u017ee li AI biti svjestan?<\/p>\n

                        Kurzweilov odgovor:<\/p>\n

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                          svijest je subjektivna<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                          ne postoji znanstveni test<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                          Ali\u2026<\/p>\n

                          Ako je entitet:<\/p>\n

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                            nerazlu\u010div od svjesnog bi\u0107a<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                            komunicira, suosje\u0107a, pamti<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                            Dru\u0161tvo \u0107e ga prihvatiti kao svjesnog<\/strong>.
                            Ne zato \u0161to mora.
                            Nego zato \u0161to je suprotno \u2013 beskorisno.<\/p>\n

                            Ve\u0107 danas:<\/p>\n

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                              ljudi emocionalno reagiraju na AI terapeute<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                              To je tek po\u010detak.<\/p>\n

                              Ra\u010dunsko \u201euskrsnu\u0107e\u201c i digitalni identitet<\/h2>\n

                              Kurzweil ve\u0107 radi na vlastitom digitalnom avataru.<\/p>\n

                              Ono \u010dime ga “hrani” su njegove:<\/p>\n

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                                knjige<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                \u010dlanci<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                intervjui<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                javni zapisi<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                Cilj:<\/p>\n

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                                  avatar koji zna sve \u0161to je ikad rekao<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                  dostupan za razgovor<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                  Sljede\u0107i korak:<\/p>\n

                                  \"\u27a1\ufe0f\" digitalna rekonstrukcija osoba koje vi\u0161e nisu \u017eive<\/p>\n

                                  Ne sutra.
                                  Ali vjerojatno u 10\u201315 godina<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

                                  Ovo otvara te\u0161ka filozofska pitanja.
                                  Ali i nova razumijevanja identiteta.<\/p>\n

                                  Rad, novac i kraj klasi\u010dnog zapo\u0161ljavanja<\/h2>\n

                                  Kurzweil je jasan:<\/p>\n

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                                    posao \u2260 financijska sigurnost<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                    UI omogu\u0107uje proizvodnju obilja.
                                    Ali:<\/p>\n

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                                      klasi\u010dni poslovi nestaju<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                      Rje\u0161enje:<\/p>\n

                                      \"\u27a1\ufe0f\" univerzalni osnovni dohodak (UBI)<\/p>\n

                                      Procjena:<\/p>\n

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                                        2030-e<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                        Za\u0161to?<\/p>\n

                                        Jer:<\/p>\n

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                                          79 % ljudi ne nalazi smisao u korporativnim poslovima<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                          Odvajanje prihoda od rada nije prijetnja.
                                          To je oslobo\u0111enje<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

                                          Budu\u0107nost su\u010delja: zbogom mobiteli<\/h2>\n

                                          No\u0161enje fizi\u010dkog ure\u0111aja je privremeno rje\u0161enje.<\/p>\n

                                          Slijedi:<\/p>\n

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                                            pro\u0161irena stvarnost<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                            virtualna stvarnost<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                            neuro-su\u010denici<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                            Dugoro\u010dno:<\/p>\n

                                            \"\u27a1\ufe0f\" izravna veza s \u017eiv\u010danim sustavom<\/p>\n

                                            Tehnologija postaje \u2013 nevidljiva.<\/p>\n

                                            Computronium i inteligencija koju ne mo\u017eemo zamisliti<\/h2>\n

                                            Kurzweil predvi\u0111a razvoj materijala optimiziranog za ra\u010dunanje.<\/p>\n

                                            Jedna litra:<\/p>\n

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                                              ve\u0107a ra\u010dunalna mo\u0107 od 10 milijardi ljudi zajedno<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                              Do 2045.:<\/p>\n

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                                                ve\u0107ina inteligencije postoji kao softver<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                                Do 2086.:<\/p>\n

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                                                  inteligencija u Sun\u010devom sustavu izlazi iz okvira ljudske ma\u0161te<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                                  Pitanje vi\u0161e nije \u201eho\u0107e li se dogoditi\u201c<\/h2>\n

                                                  To pitanje je zatvoreno.<\/p>\n

                                                  Pravo pitanje glasi:<\/p>\n

                                                  \"\u27a1\ufe0f\" Je li ovo dobro za \u010dovje\u010danstvo?<\/p>\n

                                                  Kurzweil je optimist.
                                                  Rizici postoje.
                                                  Ali trend pokazuje \u2013 naprijed.<\/p>\n

                                                  Najve\u0107a opasnost?<\/p>\n

                                                  Ne umjetna inteligencija.
                                                  Nego pasivnost.<\/p>\n

                                                  FAQ \u2013 naj\u010de\u0161\u0107a pitanja o AGI-ju, singularnosti i Kurzweilu<\/h2>\n

                                                  1. \u0160to je AGI i za\u0161to je druga\u010diji od dana\u0161njeg AI-ja?<\/strong>
                                                  AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) je umjetna inteligencija koja razumije i rje\u0161ava probleme u svim podru\u010djima, ne samo u jednom zadatku poput pisanja teksta ili generiranja slika.<\/p>\n

                                                  2. Je li 2029. realan rok za AGI?<\/strong>
                                                  Prema Rayu Kurzweilu \u2013 da. Njegova predvi\u0111anja temelje se na eksponencijalnom rastu ra\u010dunalne snage i imaju povijesnu to\u010dnost od oko 86%.<\/p>\n

                                                  3. \u0160to zna\u010di singularnost 2045. u praksi?<\/strong>
                                                  Singularnost zna\u010di spajanje ljudske i umjetne inteligencije, gdje tehnologija postaje produ\u017eetak na\u0161ih kognitivnih sposobnosti.<\/p>\n

                                                  4. Ho\u0107e li AI zamijeniti ljude na poslu?<\/strong>
                                                  Ne u klasi\u010dnom smislu. Poslovi \u0107e se promijeniti, a prihod \u0107e se postupno odvajati od tradicionalnog zapo\u0161ljavanja.<\/p>\n

                                                  5. \u0160to je Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV)?<\/strong>
                                                  To je to\u010dka kada medicinski napredak produ\u017euje \u017eivot br\u017ee nego \u0161to starimo, \u010dime se starenje prakti\u010dki zaustavlja.<\/p>\n

                                                  6. Je li digitalni avatar isto \u0161to i osoba?<\/strong>
                                                  Ne. Avatar je funkcionalna rekonstrukcija znanja i osobnosti, ali ne i potpuno biolo\u0161ko ili emocionalno stanje osobe.<\/p>\n

                                                  7. Mo\u017ee li AI biti svjestan?<\/strong>
                                                  Svijest je subjektivna. Ako se AI pona\u0161a nerazlu\u010divo od svjesnog bi\u0107a, dru\u0161tvo \u0107e ga takvim i tretirati.<\/p>\n

                                                  8. Trebam li se bojati umjetne inteligencije?<\/strong>
                                                  Strah dolazi iz nerazumijevanja. Znanje i aktivna prilagodba su najbolja strategija.<\/p>\n

                                                  9. Kako se pojedinac mo\u017ee pripremiti za ovu budu\u0107nost?<\/strong>
                                                  U\u010denjem prakti\u010dne primjene AI-ja, razvojem kriti\u010dkog razmi\u0161ljanja i prilagodbom na\u010dina rada.<\/p>\n

                                                  10. Je li ovo znanstvena fantastika?<\/strong>
                                                  Ne. Ovo su trendovi koji su ve\u0107 u tijeku i ubrzavaju se.<\/p>\n

                                                  \u0160to ovo zna\u010di za tebe \u2013 danas<\/h2>\n

                                                  Ako si poduzetnik, zaposlenik ili kreator:<\/p>\n

                                                    \n
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                                                    u\u010denje AI-ja vi\u0161e nije opcija<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                                    razumijevanje trendova je prednost<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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                                                    prilagodba je valuta<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                                    AI PRAKTIKUM postoji upravo zbog ovoga.<\/p>\n

                                                    Darko Biland\u017ei\u0107
                                                    info@aipraktikum.com
                                                    U doba inteligencije, neznanje je odabir<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                                                    Umjetna inteligencija na ljudskoj razini dolazi do 2029., dugovje\u010dnost se radikalno produ\u017euje oko 2032., a do 2045. ulazimo u singularnost \u2013 spajanje ljudi i umjetne inteligencije. Ne radi se o borbi \u010dovjeka i stroja, nego o fuziji koja vi\u0161estruko poja\u010dava ljudski…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15304,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"Ray Kurzweil umjetna inteligencija","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Ray Kurzweil, AGI i budu\u0107nost \u010dovje\u010danstva","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Ray Kurzweil predvi\u0111a AGI do 2029. i singularnost do 2045. Saznaj \u0161to to zna\u010di za posao, dugovje\u010dnost i budu\u0107nost \u010dovje\u010danstva.","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai"],"yoast_head":"\nRay Kurzweil, AGI i budu\u0107nost \u010dovje\u010danstva<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ray Kurzweil predvi\u0111a AGI do 2029. i singularnost do 2045. 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